Add / Hold / Trim / Exit — מסגרת, לא המלצה

כללי החלטה

אלה מסגרות עבודה לכל חברה, לא המלצות קנייה/מכירה. תנועת מחיר כשלעצמה אינה ראיה. כל פעולה (הוספה / החזקה / קיצוץ / יציאה) חייבת להירשם.

GRAL · החזקה / מעקב (Hold / Monitor)

הוספה (Add)

  • Thesis materially strengthens
  • FDA / CMS / reimbursement probability improves
  • Price implies mostly bear-case assumptions
  • High-quality volume improves and implied ASP stabilizes
  • Burn declines meaningfully
  • Peer-reviewed clinical evidence strengthens the thesis
  • Position size remains within risk limits
  • Do not add only because price fell or thesis is weakening

החזקה (Hold)

  • Thesis intact; valuation not obviously excessive
  • Catalyst path remains alive; evidence mixed but not broken
  • Risk/reward acceptable; position size appropriate

קיצוץ (Trim)

  • Valuation prices in bull/blue-sky before evidence
  • Stock rises faster than evidence; position too concentrated
  • Trim is risk management, not thesis rejection

יציאה (Exit)

  • FDA / CMS / payer path breaks
  • Clinical evidence materially weakens; volume quality fails; ASP collapses
  • Dilution becomes severe; management loses credibility
  • Competitor displacement becomes likely

NTRA · החזקה / מעקב (Hold / Monitor)

הוספה (Add)

  • Require a meaningful valuation reset with intact thesis, OR materially stronger evidence on Signatera, reimbursement, margins, cash flow or competition
  • Never add because price fell alone

החזקה (Hold)

  • Thesis and execution remain intact
  • Valuation demanding but not clearly irrational
  • Position size appropriate; unresolved gaps remain monitorable

קיצוץ (Trim)

  • Expectations or position size materially exceed evidence
  • Growth slows while the multiple stays high; competition/expenses/dilution rise
  • Trim can be risk management, not thesis rejection

יציאה (Exit)

  • Signatera growth, reimbursement, ASP, competitive position, margin or cash-flow thesis deteriorates materially while valuation stays premium

AXTI · החזקה / מעקב (Hold / Monitor)

הוספה (Add)

  • Only when execution evidence strengthens or valuation resets without thesis deterioration

החזקה (Hold)

  • While demand is intact and conversion evidence is progressing but incomplete

קיצוץ (Trim)

  • When valuation or position size outruns revenue, margin and competitive proof

יציאה (Exit)

  • When AXTI-specific conversion breaks; do not rely on category demand alone

PKE · החזקה / מעקב (Hold / Monitor)

הוספה (Add)

  • Consider only when valuation resets or evidence strengthens materially
  • FY2027 confirms durability; backlog converts at margin; gross margin ~30%+
  • Normalized FCF covers the dividend; plant ROIC credible; ATM controlled; position size appropriate
  • Do not add solely because PKE is high quality, has cash, or has a long dividend history

החזקה (Hold)

  • Thesis intact; FY2026 improvement credible but not fully confirmed
  • Financial quality strong; valuation plausible only under base/bull scenarios
  • Position size appropriate

קיצוץ (Trim)

  • Valuation prices sustained bull-case growth before proof
  • Margins weaken; program catalysts slip; capex/ATM risk rises; position too large
  • A trim can be risk management without thesis rejection

יציאה (Exit)

  • Backlog fails to convert; FY2027 shows FY2026 was temporary
  • Gross margin below 28% without a recovery path
  • GE/Aerojet/PAC-3 demand weakens materially; key qualification/sole-source lost
  • Plant capex destroys returns; dilution becomes material; valuation stays premium while earnings power deteriorates

ברמת התיק

Per-company Add / Hold / Trim / Exit frameworks live in each _data/<ticker>.yml and the briefs. Portfolio-level sell/trim rules: portfolio/sell-framework.md. Every action must be logged; price movement alone is not evidence.